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TWENTY-ONE
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
about CFI script & motion picture profit forecasting
1. What is a general description of the strategy?
a. Forecasting the North American profitability of feature films before production to insure a return on investment.
b. Forecasting the International profitability of feature films before production to insure a return on investment.
2. What is a general description of its basic goals?
a. To pre-select those feature films with the most potential for a return on production investment.
b. To produce the feature films with the greatest potential for profitability.
c. To distribute the feature films with the greatest potential for a return on the investment.
3. What is a general description of its objectives?
a. To receive the greatest possible return on all feature film investments in order to profit as much as possible.
b. To provide more funding in producing a greater number of feature films that will bring greater return on the investment.
c. To provide more leverage for distributing funded feature films at a cost that will bring a bigger return on investment.
d. To provide funding for purchasing extended models of distribution that can show an even greater return on investment.
4. What is the strategy's "edge" - precisely?
a. The strategy is over 91% accurate in forecasting profitability for scripts designed for wide-release feature films at the domestic and overseas box-offices.
b. The strategy is supported by proprietary sciences unavailable to other producers or competitors in the film industry.
c. The strategy is objectively quantifiable in its forecasting and validating of profitable attributes in feature film productions.
d. The strategy can monitor feature film production at every level in order to also insure greater world-wide profitability.
e. The strategy can be applied secretly to avoid interrupting the audience's enjoyment of the cinematic experience.
f. The strategy can forecast changes in the desires of feature film audiences in order to maintain maximum profitability.
5. Is this edge based on a quantitative or discretionary approach? How much individual judgment is required?
a. This edge is based on the quantitative application of component valuations numerically calculated from biometrically recorded audience responses and word-of-mouth (resonance) activity levels to all wide-released motion pictures containing varying degrees of components with profit or nonprofit results.
b. Prospective film scripts are scrutinized using individual observation for component formulations that affect the audience response and word-of-mouth propensity.
c. Component valuations are applied to the formulations in strict qualitative guidelines for objectively calculating the profitability forecast quantitatively.
d. The component valuations are tabulated mathematically for their cumulative affect on project profitability.
e. For exceptionally rare component formulations without historical valuations, individual judgments using comparative analysis of correlated component patterns are conducted by qualified experts to extrapolate an approximate, subjective valuation of the eccentric formulation. In this rare exception, a formulation committee is then convened to conduct a group evaluation of the collective judgments and their final recommendation is accompanied with a preset advisory to exclude the odd component from the motion picture production.
f. Component formulations are discretionarily re-evaluated when the current components might create a nonprofit tabulation that cannot be remedied by the inclusion of addition component formulations which increase profitability.
g. Permission to proceed with financing of the project is predicated on the exacting tabulation of the final component formulations that construct the script and will assure domestic box-office profitability.
6. Is it proprietary or is it simply a new twist on a commonly used approach?
Both. The profitability forecasting paradigm is proprietary, with a twist on the mass audience response analysis implemented inside a common approach of cinematic marketing research.
7. How sustainable is the edge?
With an accuracy rating 100% stronger than its closest rival NRG Nielsen National Research Group (MovieView), or the OTX (the Screening Exchange), U.S. Audiences, or Variety's MarketCast - Cinematic Forecasting and Investment Assurance provides greater continuity in audience response verification. With CFI's intrinsic capability to adjust its component recognition and pattern analysis through flexible real-time tracking methodology, continuous sustainability is permanent.
8. What factors might cause this edge to decrease?
The loss of trade secret data or proprietary information and then the mass adoption of that information by all film companies in competition (so that the edge was no longer a singular factor in their individual competitiveness) is the only factor that would cause a decrease the exclusive strength of the edge (and only for the companies that originally profited by it).
Even in that imaginary case, if a company didn't incorporate the edge like everyone else, they would not be able to compete with the rest, so each company would still need to acquire the edge in some manner. The likelihood of this occurring is nil, due to the extensive security precautions undertaken by profitability forecasting management. (Any other factor that could hypothetically cause the edge to decrease is beyond any rational expectation of future existences.)
9. What type of environment would imply adversity? In other words, is there an economic, social or market environment that might imply potential adversity for this strategy's edge?
If the marketplace changed so drastically that motion picture theaters became obsolete, profitability forecasting would then become obsolete as well. That kind of market change could only be possible by an implementation of a major bio-terrorism attack so debilitating to masses associating with each other (i.e. smallpox or Asian bird flu), that the entire country would shut down as well.
Otherwise, it would take a massive sea change in fair trade regulations (to allow a distribution monopolization by the seven biggest film studios) before the benefits of forecasting could become adversely affected.
The number of theater goers is stabilizing after the DVD influx and will remain a constant proportion of the population for the rest of time. This insures the livelihood of motion picture profitability forecasting for decades to come.
10. What type of environment would be optimal?
The current environment and its future evolution is an optimal environment for motion picture profitability forecasting. In the future, the quality of content will become ever more critical, as distribution and delivery systems become more standardized, and can no longer mesmerize the audience with the excitement and ease of new implementations in motion picture availability.
Quantities of poor product momentarily appease the audience do to the ease of availability. But sooner or later, the mass audience providers are forced to make their delivery systems compete in the QUALITY of the content they provide. When all delivery systems are homogenized, quality content will even more be king. Profitability forecasting insures that the mass audience desired QUALITY is in the kingdom.
Content providers will be left to battle for QUALITY that is attractive to the mass audience ... and that quality is assured through profitability forecasting (especially when the delivery of the quantities has been equalized and thereby neutralized).
11. What risks are implicit in this strategy? What are its weak spots? What can go wrong?
The only risk implicit in component formulation profitability forecasting is the LOSS OF CONTROL over the motion picture production itself AFTER the forecasting.
If the producer, director, marketing team or distributor of the motion picture ignore the approved script formulations and interference with, or disregard the profitable formulations previously forecast ... the film will run the risk of failing to make a profit. It is thereby imperative that those employed to produce, direct, market and distribute the motion picture are informed of the profitability formulations, contractually obligated to perform as designated, and are monitored closely by forecasting specialists to insure compliance.
Any weakness on the part of production personnel to comply with the correct formulations as approved during the forecasting will jeopardize the return on investment. Strong management and vigilant oversight is imperative. (In other words, quality business practices will prevent any weak spot or failure.) CFI provides production oversight when desired.
12. What entertainment vehicles can it be fully applied to and insure profitability at the domestic box-office in a precise and publicly measurable method?
a. All live-action feature films distributed regionally or world-wide
b. All animated or CGI feature films distributed regionally or world-wide
13. What entertainment vehicles can it be fully applied to and insure additional profitability at the international box-office in a precise and publicly measurable method?
a. All live-action feature films distributed regionally or world-wide
b. All animated feature films world-wide distributed regionally or world-wide
14. What entertainment vehicles can it be fully applied to in order to enlarge profitability without a completely measurable method?
a. All broadcast or cable motion pictures
b. All first-run dramatic episodic television productions
c. All broadcast or cable dramatic series productions
d. All music video productions
e. All video game development and theatrical spin-offs
f. All advertisements and trailer productions for the above entities
15. What other entertainment vehicles can it be partially applied to in order to increase profitability?
a. Any first-run comedic episodic television production
b. Any comedic broadcast or cable series production
c. Any children's live-action broadcast or cable production
d. Any animated children's broadcast or cable production
e. Any live dramatic stage production
f. Any live comedic stage production
g. Any live musical stage production
h. Any musical concert staging
i. Any dramatic radio production
j. Any commercial advertising
k. Any news broadcasting
16. Are there any entertainment vehicles that it would not apply to?
No.
17. Are there any similar strategies in this area that try to exploit similar edges and how does this strategy rank in comparison with them?
With the exception of one other company (Epagogix) headquartered in Great Britain that uses a lesser developed methodology than CFI, there are NO other strategies available that incorporate the same edge as this strategy does.
18. How is this strategy similar or different from commonly used strategies in the entertainment marketplace?
Other strategies designed to accomplish a few of the same objectives and goals as this strategy are well known and widely used throughout the industry, but they are much WEAKER by comparison and CANNOT insure domestic box-office profitability like motion picture component formulation profit forecasting.
Similarities in objectives and goals occur after the production has completed principle photography and includes identification of demographic constituencies and extraction of relevant data for use in marketing and advertising (in comparison to the estimation of gross receipts to be obtained from the box-office).
Their accuracy constantly varies between 48 to 72 percent (which is 33 to 55 percent lower efficiency than this strategy). And they even allow themselves a + OR - margin of error of 15%.
At CFI, the margin for error is only + OR - 3%. CFI can maintain a lower margin for error because its technology is accurate and objective. All other forecasters use subjective and out-of-date methodologies. They are all unable to explain their forecasting deficiencies rationally or consistently ... and they are unable to track consumer viewing trends adequately enough to predict future changes in forecasting (as compared to this strategy).
The other strategies available are also COMPLETELY UNABLE to accurately forecast profitability BEFORE production commences. No other strategy except CFI's can guarantee profitability.
19. Does this strategy require key individuals to be operated?
This strategy requires one key individual, support personnel, and the use of proprietary computer software to function efficiently.
Support individuals conduct normal business operations and are not privileged to analysis or proprietary trade secrets.
All component formulation parameters and valuations are encrypted and secured in securely vaulted, off-site servers.
One Key Individual is capable of conducting the business and oversight of all of its services (but others have been trained and are immediately available to take his place should he become incapacitated).
Other individuals are hired to support the workload when required. These individuals act as researchers with specific assignments in segments of the structural component formulation technology. These individuals are only privileged to very limited proprietary data and are trained in the use of only a portion of the strategy's proprietary technologies. They are bound under strict non-disclosure and non-competition agreements.
To maintain continuity in the face of a loss of the One Key Individual, two or more other Key Associates will compile data analysis independently of each other without awareness of each other's priorities. These two or more Key Associates are assigned to research each specific portion of the data for reporting accuracy. They are never informed of the multiple numerical valuations for any of the structural component formulations.
Should the One Key Individual become incapacitated, these two or more Key Associates submit reports individually to a Combined Team Leader. Each Key Associate has access to only one specific and incomplete portion of the proprietary technology. Each of the Key Associates is responsible for coding the structural component formulation analysis within their specific responsibility.
Each Key Associate is responsible for coding only their own portion of the formulation technology. The Key Associates are not aware of each other's coding, and they cannot collude to compile a complete system of structural formulation analysis. Key Associates are also not aware of the other associate's team members.
The two or more Key Associates are shadowed by one Combined Team Leader who is responsible for final analysis and delivery of the coded report to the Valuation Leader. The Combined Team Leader has access to the entire range of coded formulations, but does not have access to the valuations that represent each of the formulations.
The Valuation Leader on the other hand has no knowledge of the structural formulations or which codes represent them. The valuation leader is given only individual codes, and then assigns each code the appropriate valuation. The valuation total is transmitted from the Valuation Leader back to the Combined Team Leader who then provides the data to the client.
This organization eliminates the risk of technological data migration or the unauthorized use of analysis or documentation. It also prevents the exposure of clientele or key personnel identities. Within these confidential operations, the edge in the strategy remains secure and maintainable regardless of personnel changes or incapacitation.
20. What are realistic future performance expectations?
Future performance is expected to be very satisfying.
The analysis of feature film projects will provide domestically and internationally profitable feature film productions at the average rate of one out of five scripts given consideration through component formulation analysis.
Of those productions green-lighted and financed, more that 96% will return a profit on the investment guaranteed at 55% of the domestic box-office gross receipts.
After marketing costs have been subtracted and ancillary markets have been exploited, the return will be outstanding.
21. What has past performance been like?
Past performance has been the same as the expected performance.
The analysis of feature film projects provided domestic and international profits for feature film productions at the average rate of one out of five scripts given consideration through component formulation analysis.
Of those productions green-lighted and financed, more that 96% returned a profit on the investment guaranteed at 55% of the domestic box-office gross receipts.
After marketing costs had been subtracted and ancillary markets have been exploited, the return was outstanding.
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