CFI - Cinematic Forecasting and Investment Assurance LLC ™

Investor Opportunities in Motion Picture Profits through Feature Film Box-Office Forecasts / Pre-Production Script Development / Cinematic Archetype Casting / Component Formulation Design / U.S. and Global Market Consulting & Mass Audience Forecasting

1.1 future film forecasts

1.2 last weekend forecast

1.3 - 2011 profits & loss

1.4 - 2010 profits & loss

1.5 - 2009 profits & loss

1.6 - 2008 profits & loss

1.7 - 2007 profits & loss

1.8 - 2006 profits & loss

1.9 - 2005 profits & loss

1.10 - 2004-2002 charts

1.11 - 2001-1999 charts

1.12 CFI CONTACT INFO

2.1 intro to CFI

2.2 twenty-one questions

2.3 beta-testing complete

2.4 products & services

2.5 application & benefit

2.6 comparing methodology

2.7 client applications

2.8 four screen dynamics

2.9 playability errors

2.10 quadrant solutions

2.11 forecasting accuracy

2.12 edge on competition

3.1 film components

3.2 simple components

3.3 complex components

3.4 resolution components

3.5 horrific components

3.6 the two behaviorisms

3.7 audience psychology

3.8 suspending disbeliefs

3.9 four media approach

3.10 reading their faces

3.11 observing audiences

3.12 observing emotions

4.1 archetype vs. stereo

4.2 modern archetypes

4.3 good/bad guys ID key

4.4 line by line paradigm

4.5 face mapping tools

4.6 the classic archetype

4.7 casting examples

4.8 writers and archetype

4.9 subtypes & essences

4.10 act as VS. act like

4.11 Jung archetypal map

4.12 the MBDI vs. MBTI

5.1 script consulting

5.2 assist flow chart

5.3 production benefits

5.4 database tracking

5.5 client confidential

5.6 forecast fallibility

5.7 how the others fail

5.8 weekend mentality

5.9 neuromarketing news

5.10 neuromarket article

5.11 film neuromarketing

5.12 older methodologies

6.1 old studio systems

6.2 studio system assists

6.3 agent & mgr. benefits

6.4 improvements 4 talent

6.5 attending to imagery

6.6 the best attributes

6.7 talent research

6.8 star power ratings

6.9 star client results

6.10 secret sex chemistry

6.11 archetype inventory

6.12 sub-type inventory

7.1 CFI contact info

7.2 similar companies

7.3 actor archetype lists

7.4 bibliography to study

7.5 urls continued study

7.6 ROIs for 1999 & 2000

7.7 ROIs for 2001 & 2002

7.8 ROIs for 2003 & 2004

7.9 ROIs for 2005 & 2006

7.10 ROIs for 2007 & 2008

7.11 ROIs for 2009 - 2010

7.12 ROIs for 2011 - 2012

page 3.10

CFI™ collectively gathered scientific tools and applications from many educational and commercial sources in order to observe and identify both the audience's response behaviors and the talent's archetypal behaviors.  The website pages (3.10 thru 3.12) are news releases and journal articles about a few of those recent applications and research tools.

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Computers Trained To Read Faces

                             

JOLLA, CALIF. March 17, 1999    

A computer program developed by a Salk-led team has been trained to distinguish among a number of facial cues, helping to sort false from genuine expressions. What's more, the program performs as well as a psychologist trained to read faces and markedly better than human non-experts. 

"Computers have a difficult time analyzing expressions on faces, something we can do without even thinking," said Terrence Sejnowski, Salk professor and senior author of the study, which appears in the current issue of Psychophysiology.

"But by mimicking the ability of humans to learn by experience, computers have now broken through this barrier," he said.  Investigators hope that their program will prove helpful to law enforcement officials and mental health professionals.
                            
"When someone is lying, their true feelings often flicker across their face in what we call a micro-expression, which is quickly covered up by a posed expression" said Paul Ekman, professor of psychology at the University of California, San Francisco and co-author of the study.  "These signals may be too brief for professionals to detect in an interview setting, but they can be picked up if the conversation is videotaped and reviewed."
                  
The problem is that human analysis is labor-intensive and painstakingly slow.  "It takes about one hour to score one minute of tape," explained Marian S. Bartlett, Salk postdoctoral researcher and first author of the study.  "Our program, on the other hand, can do a minute of tape in about five minutes, and once we optimize the program it will run in near real-time."
                  
So, exactly what is being measured by the computer program?  In the 1970s, a team of psychologists led by Ekman developed a code that breaks down facial expressions into component movements by individual facial muscles.  For example, the crinkling of the eyes that causes crow's feet is produced by contraction of the orbicularis oculi muscle, an action that in a spontaneous smile is coordinated with movement of the zygomaticus major muscle, which lifts up the corners of the mouth.  Each of these movements has a designated action unit number.  "So you could describe a smile as AU6 + AU12," said Bartlett
 
People not well versed in the subtleties of facial movements have a very difficult time "faking" expressions.  For example, sadness has a characteristic set of gestures, one of the most distinctive being the contraction of the central frontalis muscle that raises the inner corners of the brows, producing wrinkles in the central forehead.
                            
"That's a really difficult one to pull off if it's not spontaneous," said Bartlett.  For that reason, law enforcement officials are interested in programs that can analyze suspects being questioned and raise red flags when it perceives insincere emotions.
 
The automated program is also of interest to mental health professionals.  For example, Ekman was involved in a case in which a woman had convinced her team of doctors that she was ready for discharge from a psychiatric hospital.  Shortly before her release however, she confessed that she, in fact, planned to commit suicide.
 
When Ekman, an expert in facial expression analysis, analyzed a videotape of her interview frame-by-frame, he detected a clue to her deception.  When she was asked, 'What are your plans for the future?' a look of despair flitted across the woman's face, which was quickly covered up by a smile.   
"Fortunately," said Ekman, "in this case, the patient had admitted her deception and accepted further treatment.  Ideally, psychiatrists would like to have a tool to flag such potentially dangerous situations, but they don't have the time to score hours of videotape manually."
 
The program works by comparing images of faces to 64 filters, or templates, each of which looks for independent components of facial movement in different regions.  For instance, raising the left inner brow would increase a face's match to filter no. 1, whereas raising the left outer brow would increase the match to filter no. 2.  The computer analyzes the information from all 60 filters and decides whether the collective output matches AU1 or AU2 and so on.
 
In the current study, the program was trained to recognize six of 48 individual muscle actions described by Ekman.  For all six actions, it out-performed human non-experts and performed as well as highly trained human experts.  The investigators plan next to teach it the remaining actions and then tackle combinations of these actions.
 
"Although we have a proof of principle that computers can be taught to recognize facial expressions," said Sejnowski, "there is still a long way to go before we have practical systems that are as flexible as humans over a wide range of head positions and lighting conditions.  The next step is to integrate what we have done with work by other groups on solving these problems."

Joseph C. Hager at the Network Information Research Corp in
Salt Lake City is a co-author of the study, titled; Measuring Facial Expressions by Computer Image Analysis; The work was supported by the National Science Foundation, the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, and a Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories Intra-University Agreement.
          
The Salk Institute for Biological Studies, located in La Jolla, Calif., is an independent nonprofit institution dedicated to fundamental discoveries in the life sciences, the improvement of human health and conditions, and the training of future generations of researchers.  The Institute was founded in 1960 by Jonas Salk, M.D., with a gift of land from the City of San Diego and the financial support of the March of Dimes Birth Defects Foundation. 

   SALK INSTITUTE FOR BIOLOGICAL STUDIES,
Torrey Pines Road La Jolla, CA 92037  (619) 453-4100
                            
 
                           
CFI website map for 2011

1.1 FUTURE FILM Forecasts
2.1 Introduction to CFI
3.1 Unseen Components
4.1 Archetype vs. Stereo
5.1 Screenplay Consulting
6.1 Old Studio System
7.1 CFI CONTACT INFO
1.2 LAST WEEKEND Forecast
2.2 Twenty-One Questions
3.2 Simple Components
4.2 Modern Archetypes
5.2 Assist Flow Chart
6.2 Studio System Assists
7.2 Similar Companies
1.3 2011 Profit & Loss Chart
2.3 Beta-Testing Complete
3.3 Complex Components
4.3 Good/Bad Guys ID Keys
5.3 Production Benefits
6.3 Agent & Mgr. Benefits
7.3 Actor Archetype Lists
1.4 2010 Profit & Loss Chart
2.4 Products & Services
3.4 Resolution Components
4.4 Line by Line Paradigm
5.4 Database Tracking
6.4 Improvements 4 Talent
7.4 Bibliography for Study 
1.5 2009 Profit & Loss Chart
2.5 Application & Benefit
3.5 Horrific Components
4.5 Face Mapping Tools
5.5 Client Confidential
6.5 Attending to Imagery
7.5 URLs to Continue Study
1.6 2008 Profit & Loss Chart
2.6 Comparing Methodology
3.6 The Two Behaviors
4.6 The Classic Archetypes
5.6 Forecast Fallibility
6.6 The Best Attributes
7.6 ROIs for 1999 - 2000
1.7 2007 Profit & Loss Chart
2.7 Client Applications
3.7 Audience Psychology
4.7 Casting Examples
5.7 How the Others Fail
6.7 Talent Research
7.7 ROIs for 2001 - 2002
1.8 2006 Profit & Loss Chart
2.8 Four Screen Dynamics
3.8 Suspending Disbelief
4.8 Writers and Archetype
5.8 Weekend Mentality
6.8 Star Power Ratings
7.8 ROIs for 2003 - 2004
1.9 2005 Profit & Loss Chart
2.9 Playability Errors
3.9 Four Media Approach
4.9 Subtypes & Essences
5.9 Neuromarketing News
6.9 Star Client Results
7.9 ROIs for 2005 - 2006
1.10 2004 - 2002 P & L Chart
2.10 Quadrant Solutions
3.10 Reading Their Faces
4.10 Act As vs. Act Like
5.10 Neuromarket Article
6.10 Secret Sex Chemistry
7.10 ROIs for 2007 - 2008
1.11 2001 - 1999 P & L Chart
2.11 Forecasting Accuracy
3.11 Observing Audiences
4.11 Jung Archetypal Map
5.11 Film Neuromarketing
6.11 Archetype Inventory
7.11 ROIs for 2009 - 2010
1.12 CFI CONTACT INFO
2.12 Edge on Competition
3.12 Observing Emotions
4.12 The MBDI vs. MBTI
5.12 Older Methodologies
6.12 Sub-Type Inventory
7.12 Senior Analyst Bio