CFI - Cinematic Forecasting and Investment Assurance LLC ™

1.      EVALUATIONS OF U.S. BOX-OFFICE PROFITS by CORRECT FILM COMPONENT, SEXUAL CHEMISTRY, and CINEMATIC ARCHETYPE

 

Of U.S. films wide released between November 1998 to November 2001,

77% of them FAILED to generate enough sales to cover costs and suffered financial losses and only 23% had enough ticket sales at the US box office to profit after production costs. (1 in 4.3 succeeded in the U.S,)

 

Of 200 wide-release films evaluated between November 1998 and November 2001,

81% were mis-cast for various cinematic archetype.

15% were mis-cast for sexual chemistry (30/134 = 22% of films including romance)

and 86% suffered from some component formulation error

while only 3% of all films were free of both casting or component errors.  Of those 6 non-error films, 100% made a profit at the U.S. box office.

 

CONCLUSION:

Without knowledge of casting and component risk aversion - you had a 1 in 34 chance of an error-free product, but only an 1 in 4.3 chance of making any money at the U.S. box-office.

 

 

Of the 46 films that made a profit at the US box…

Only 2 or 4.3% were mis-cast for sexual chemistry

and 11 or 24% were mis-cast for lead cinematic archetype

and 33 or 71% suffered from component errors

and 39 or 85% contained component enhancements

 

Of the 154 films that LOST money at the US box…

There were 74 or 48% mis-cast for sexual chemistry

and 91 or 59% were mis-cast for lead cinematic archetype.

Another 141 or 92.3% suffered from component formulation errors,

            and 7.8% were defeated by their over-inflated production costs.

 

CONCLUSION:

Films that fail, are two to ten times more likely to fail from cinematic archetype or sexual chemistry mis-casting than those which make a profit.  Correct cinematic archetyping and sexual chemistry (without additional component failure) will guarantee that a film succeeds…and INCORRECT LEADING ARCHETYPES or MIS-CAST SEXUAL CHEMISTRY,

GUARANTEE that the film will fail.

 

 

2.      COMPARISON OF FILM SCORES BY SEXUAL CHEMISTRY

 
                                                                     (46)                                                       (154)

                                             PLUS COMPONENT SCORE           MINUS COMPONENT SCORE

OF ALL FILMS                  of total       of winners     # films          of total       of losers     # films

with GOOD SEXUAL    12%                                          12.5%

      CHEMISTRY              48%              54%              25                  2%             17.5%            27

 

W/ BAD SEXUAL         1%                                                        37%

CHEMISTRY              2.5%             4%                 2                   97%             49%            75

 
W/ GRATUITOUS         2%                                            0.5%

SEX                               80%             9%                4                    20%             0.6%             1

W/ NO SEX OR            8%                                           26.5%

ROMANCE                  23%            33%              15                  77%            33%             51

                                                                                                   

 

Of JUST the 23% of all films earning profits and over 50 in component scores,

51%  (24) had correct sexual chemistry through correct archetype casting

and only 4% (2) had mis-cast sexual chemistry.

9%  (4) had gratuitous sexuality,

and 34% (16) had NO romance involved in the story.

 

 

Of just those 77% of all films NOT profitable with under 50 in component scores,

only 16% (25) had correct sexual chemistry…( 3.2 times less than profitable films)

48% (74) had sexual chemistries mis-cast ……….( 12 times more than profitable films)

ONLY 1 (0.7%) had gratuitous sex ……………. ( 13 times less than profitable films)

33% (51) had NO romance at all ………………….. ( 0 times more than profitable films)

 

74% of all 1998-2001 films DO NOT have sexual chemistry cast correctly.

        Only 39% of all the films with romance (134) had SEXUAL CHEMISTRY cast correctly (52).

Only 35% of all films had no romance. THEREFORE, the audience was being programmed 65% of the time to expect romance.  That is a huge audience expectation needing to be fulfilled correctly.  That also means that 65% of all films included romance and stood a higher probability of casting the chemistry incorrectly and losing more money.

CONCLUSION:
Correct sexual chemistry casting through component formulation is extremely important to profitable filmmaking…(and gratuitous sex is better than no romance at all.)

 

 

 

3.       COMPARISONS BETWEEN CORRECT ARCHETYPE CASTING AND U.S. PROFITABILITY

 

80.5% of all films DID NOT have all three leading archetypes cast correctly.  

 

Exactly 43.5% of the (39) films in which all three leading roles were cast correctly, also had sexual chemistry cast correctly (17).

 

Exactly 183 or 91.5% of all films DO NOT have all three lead roles AND sexual chemistry cast correctly.

 

68.5% of all films had their CHARACTER actors cast in archetype correctly!  (Casting directors succeed at character actor casting because that is where they have the most practice and that is where they have the most authority or casting control.)

 

78% (36 of 46) money making films were cast CORRECTLY for cinematic archetypes.

 

CONCLUSION:

It is no surprise that 77% of all films fail to cover production costs at the U.S. box-office when actors and their sexual counterparts fall out of archetype and fail. 

 

 

 

4.  FREQUENCY OF ACTORS AVAILABLE BY NATURAL ARCHETYPE

 

The frequency of True-Hero Archetypes and Anti-Hero Archetypes appearing in all Academy Player Directories is split equally.  Neither ‘type’ is in less supply.

 

50% of all actors are psychologically True-Hero archetypes and the other 50% are born Anti-Hero archetypes (data derived from CFI biometric analysis of Academy Player Directory).

 

HOWEVER, there are currently more cinematic storylines in production which require leading roles cast specifically for ANTI-HEROES than there are stories that require casting of True-Heroes.  It’s like they say in Hollywood, “A story is only as good as its bad guy.”

 

 

 

 

5.   MOTION PICTURE LEADING ROLE REQUIREMENTS

 

70.5% (141) of all films released required an ANTI-HERO for their leading role,

while only

28.5% (59) of all films released required a leading role in True-Hero.

 

CONCLUSION:

There were 147% more true-hero actors competing for roles than are needed for casting.  When there are too many true-hero archetype actors available for the actual number of True-Hero film roles to be cast, casting directors or producers surreptitiously cast them into Anti-Hero roles and cause sexual chemistry and storyline archetype casting errors.

 

NEARLY HALF OF THE FILMS REQUIRING AN ANTI-HERO ACTOR ARCHETYPE FOR THE LEAD ROLE WERE CAST INCORRECTLY AND THEY BETRAYED THE AUDIENCE’S SUSPENSION OF DIS-BELIEF BY CASTING THE WRONG ARCHETYPE INSTEAD.

 

 

  

6.  FREQUENCY IN CORRECTLY CASTING LEADS BY ARCHETYPE

 

LESS THAN ONE-THIRD OF ALL FILMS REQUIRED TRUE-HEROES. 

 

OVER 2/3 OF ALL FILMS,

REQUIRED AN ANTI-HERO ARCHETYPE FOR THE LEADING ROLE.

 

47% (66/141) of the Anti-Hero leading roles were cast with the TRUE-HERO actor,

 

Conversely, the probability of failing to appropriately cast the true-hero leading roles is now reduced due to the over-abundance of competing true-hero actors. 

 

Therefore, only 37% (22/59) of the True-Hero Storyline leading roles were cast with the ANTI-HERO actor.

 

CONCLUSION:

Identification of a talent’s natural archetype is critical for successful casting and greater profitability.  Just "flipping a quarter" will not beat the odds at this time.

 

 

 

 

7.    COMPARISONS OF STAR POWER FILM COMPONENTS

 

47% of all films had at least ONE star power talent in the cast.

But only 23% of the films with star power talent actually made a profit at the US box-office (that’s only 21 films out of 200 that made money using a star power talent).

 

37% (14) of the 38 films grossing over 100 million in the US -- HAD NO STAR POWER.

50% (10) of the next 20 films grossing more than 70 million – HAD NO STAR POWER.

 

CONCLUSION:

That’s only 10% of all films released in the last two years that actually profited in the U.S. from using a star power talent.  Scripts with financial backing to attach star power talent are of less quality than scripts which have to succeed on their own inherent storytelling merit.

 

 

 

8.   COMPARISONS AND EVALUATIONS OF INTERNATIONAL BOX-OFFICE AND STAR POWER COMPONENTS

 

OF ALL THE FILMS RELEASED IN THE U.S. -- ONLY 63% MADE MONEY OVERSEAS.  And 56% of those (70) that did make money overseas HAD a star power talent in their cast.  (That’s 1/3 of all films released in the U.S. that were able to take international income using a star power talent in the cast.)

 

AND OF THOSE STAR POWER FILMS THAT EARNED MONEY OVERSEAS…

81% OF THEM DID NOT EARN A PROFIT WHEN RELEASED IN THE US.

On the other hand, 44%  (or 56 of the 126 films which earned international profits) had NO star power talent included in their casts…AND yet just 55% of those didn’t earn enough money to profit in their U.S. release.

 

ONLY 13 OUT OF 70 (19%) STAR POWER FILMS MADE MONEY IN BOTH MARKETS, YET 25 OUT OF 56 (45%) of NON-STAR POWER FILMS MADE MONEY IN BOTH MARKETS!  (And that’s a total of just 19% of all films released which were able to clear a profit in both the U.S. box-office, and then make more money overseas.)

 
CONCLUSION:

Even though star power films have a better chance of making money overseas…  the odds are better for making money in both markets…with non-star power (and thereby less expensive) film products.

 

 

 

9. INTERNATIONAL INCOME ACHIEVED BY 1999-2001 RELEASES

  0.5% made more than 400 million overseas

  1.0% made more than 300 million overseas

  3.5% made more than 200 million overseas

  16% made more than 100 million overseas

  17% made more than 90 million overseas

  18% made more than 80 million overseas

  20% made more than 70 million overseas

  22% made more than 60 million overseas
          25% made more than 50 million overseas

          30% made more than 40 million overseas

          33% made more than 30 million overseas

          40% made more than 20 million overseas

          47% made more than 10 million overseas

          50% made more than 7 million overseas

          63 % made more than 1 million overseas

          37% MADE NO EFFORT OVERSEAS

CONCLUSION:

Of the 48 films scoring over 50 component points and making money at the U.S. box-office, 16% of those films did not make money internationally due to cultural ambiguity.

 

10. COMPARISONS OF FILM PRODUCTION VALUES

 

OF ALL FILMS RELEASED IN THE U.S.

17 had high production values      (40-26 POINTS)            09%

83 had good production values     (25-21 POINTS)            41%

THIS STANDARD OF QUALITY REPRESENTS 50% OF ALL FILMS RELEASED

 

72 had average production values      (20-16 POINTS)                                     36%

28 had less than average values                   (FEWER THAN 16 POINTS)       14%

THIS LACK OF QUALITY REPRESENTS 50% OF ALL FILMS RELEASED

 

CONCLUSION:

Craftsmen responsible for film production values have the greatest positive contribution to a film when CFI Component Risk Aversion and Formulation Technology is NOT being incorporated in pre-production.  (Once CFI techniques are incorporated, these crafts usually generate the smallest contribution to a project.)

 

 

 

11. COMPARISONS OF FILM COSTS AND PROFITABILITY

 

Production Cost Comparisons for

COMPONENT WINNERS   vs.    LOSERS (MPI Component scores)

2 cost over 100 mln                          10 cost over 100 mln = 20% CHANCE of SUCCEEDING

11 cost over 50 mln                            53 cost over 50 mln  = 17% chance of succeeding

            and

33 cost under 50 mln          /           93 cost under 50 mln = 26% chance of succeeding

 

COMPONENT WINNERS   vs.    LOSERS (MPI Component scores)

17 cost over 25 mln                          49 cost over 25 mln       = 27% chance of succeeding

16 cost under 25 mln                      42 cost under 25 mln   =  24% CHANCE of SUCCEEDING

(46 films profitable)       /      (154 films losing)         = 23%  Overall chance of success    

 

            ALL PROFIT  WINNERS                         ALL PRODUCTION FAILURES

 

           29% were over 50 million                           41% were over 50 million         

           71% were under 50 million                       59% were under 50 million                                

 

Of all budgets over 50 million      18% were winners       and  82% were losers         

Of all budgets under 50 million     28% were winners    and  72% were losers

 

CONCLUSION:

Winning films (which already have correct component dynamics) cost studios much less to make than losers (with incorrect components). 

 

It’s not smaller budgets that make a loser, it’s the wrong component dynamics … especially in the under 50 million range where there is no glitter, hype, or star power to substitute for accurate component dynamics. 

 

Films costing over 50 million are risky business.  The odds of succeeding at the U.S. box are 60% better using a film budgeted under 50 million dollars. The less money you have to spend on special effects, the harder you work to qualify the remaining components.

 

 

 

12. COMPARISONS OF MPAA RATINGS FOR FINANCIAL SUCCESS

 

                      MONEY MAKERS (with Component Scores)                   MONEY LOSERS (with Component Scores)

    per total per winners per rating  #films                          per total per losers  per rating  # films

NC17 =       0%               0%              0%              0                              0.5%         100%          100%           1

 

R =              8%              35%            20%            16                           32.5%          42%            80%            65

 

PG13 =      12%             52%            24%            24                           37.5%          49%            76%            75

 

PG =          2.5%             11%            29%             5                               6%             8%               71%            12

 

G =            0.5%               2%             50%              1                             0.5%           0.6%           50%             1

Avgs. =     6%                  ----              31%             46                            19%             ----              69%           154

 

CONCLUSION:

It does not really matter what rating the MPAA gives your film.  

As long as the correct components are there, your opening weekend audience will go home and tell their friends to see it -- and the project will be a moneymaker. 

 

Turning to gentler rating veins will increase market share with younger audiences but it won't be successful using incorrect component formulation so the paradigm remains the same. The rougher genre will still continue to succeed at the same rate as they always have before.  You must have proper component formulation no matter what rating you seek. 

 

 

 

 

13. COMPARISONS OF FILM GENRE FOR BOX-OFFICE SUCCESS

 

                                                                   MONEY MAKERS w/scores                                MONEY LOSERS w/scores

OF ALL FILMS                                        of total  per winner  per genre # films                 of total per loser per genre # films

39 % CS = situation comedy                  11%       48%            29%          22                      27.5%       36%         71%        55

6 % CR = romantic comedy                    2%         8%              36%           4                         3.5%       4.5%         64%         7

0.5 % CB = black comedy                       0%         0%              0%             0                         0.5%       0.6%       100%         1

0 % CM = musical comedy                     0%          0%              0%             0                           0%          0%             0%          0

45.5% were COMEDY                           13%                                                                          31.5%               

 

 

20 % AA = action adventure                    3.5%      15%           22%          7                           17%        22%          78%       34

10 % TS = suspense thriller                    2.5%       11%           26%         5                            7%           9%           74%        14

30% ACTION-SUSPENSE                      6%                                                                             24%               

 

 

20 % DS = situation drama                     5.5%        24%         27%        11                           15%         19%          73%        30

4 % DR = romantic drama                        0%           0%           0%          0                             3.5%       4.5%        100%         7

2 % DD = dialogue drama                        0%           0%           0%          0                             1.5%        19%         100%        3

0.5 % DM = musical drama                      0%           0%            0%          0                            0.5%         0.6%        100%        1

26.5% were DRAMA                               5.5%                                         46                           20.5%                                        154

 

 

CONCLUSION:

Comedies are the clear financial winner -- proving once again that filmmaking is all about #1 intellectual entertainment. 

 
The odds of succeeding with a comedy are 1 in 3.4 films.  And even though romantic comedies are one of the least prolific genres, they were the most likely genre to make a profit at the U.S. box.

 

Adventures and thrillers come in second place -- providing an audience with #2 emotional entertainment and #3 intellectual education respectively.  The odds of succeeding within these genres are 1 in 5.

 

Dramas are the losers -- validating the fact that mental entertainment is preferred over #4 emotional education by average film-going audiences.  The odds of succeeding with a drama are 1 in 4.7 films.

 

The difference in the odds of succeeding between the four standard mental-emotional and education-entertainments is substantial and should be remembered with special consideration when selecting future opportunities.

 

 

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THIS IS A SAMPLE OF A CONFIDENTIAL CFI ANALYSIS.

COMPONENT FORMULATION

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EVALUATION OF SPORTS, CONTEST OR RACING CONTENT FILM

COMPONENT vs. U.S. BOX OFFICE SUCCESS

 

 

                                            MONEY MAKERS                                 MONEY LOSERS

FILMS WITH

SPORTS,                          of total       of genre     # films                of total       of genre     # films

CONTEST OR

RACING CONTENT       2%               21%            (4)                    7.5%               79%          (15)

 

 

CONCLUSION:

This component error is probably the least understood component error and has a very low ratio of success - only 1 out of 5 succeeded.  And almost 10% of all films in 2001 contained this mistake.

 

THE TOTAL MONEY LOST FROM JUST THOSE FIFTEEN FILMS CONTAINING COMPONENT #19 WAS A STAGGERING THREE-HUNDRED AND THIRTY-FOUR MILLION DOLLARS ($334,000,000.⁰⁰) at an AVERAGE LOSS OF $22,000,000.⁰⁰ PER FILM!

 

(See the private CFI document #A30.0 for a detailed explanation of this negative factorization.)

 

14. EVALUATION OF FILM COMPONENT POINT REDUCTIONS
      FOR ALL FILMS IN 1.0 DATABASE for 2001

17 FILMS (8.5%)  -  with 0  points off

 

28 FILMS (14%) -  10 Component points off

5 FILMS (2.5%) -  15 Component points off

19 FILMS (9.5%) -  20 Component points off

31 FILMS (15.5) -  25 Component points off

 83 films (42.5%) lost 10 - 25 points

 

14 FILMS (7%) -  30 Component points off

24 FILMS (12%) -  35 Component points off

9 FILMS (4.5) -  40 Component points off

21 FILMS (10.5%) -  45 Component points off

11 FILMS (5.5%) -  50 Component points off

 79 films (39.5%) lost 30 - 50 points

 

 82% of all films lost 10 to 50 points from

component errors…

 

2 FILMS (1%) -  55 Component points off

5 FILMS (2.5%) -  60 Component points off

1 FILMS (0.5%) -  65 Component points off

2 FILMS (1%) -  70 Component points off

4 FILMS (2%) -  75 Component points off

 14  films ( 7%) lost 55 - 75 points

 

1 FILMS (0.5%) -  80 Component points off

2 FILMS (1%) -  85 Component points off

1 FILMS (0.5%) - 100 Component points off

 4  films (2%) lost 80 - 100 points

 

1 FILMS (0.5%) - 115 Component points off

1 FILM (0.5%)    - 135 Component points off

1 FILM (0.5%)    - 145 Component points off

 3  films (1.5%) lost 115 - 145 points