CFI - Cinematic Forecasting and Investment Assurance LLC ™
Investor Opportunities in Motion Picture Profits through Feature Film Box-Office Forecasts / Pre-Production Script Development / Cinematic Archetype Casting / Component Formulation Design / U.S. and Global Market Consulting & Mass Audience Forecasting
How CFI Forecasts can sometimes error (even though they only error less than 9% of the time)
MORE THAN NINETY-ONE PERCENT (over 91%) of the time, CFI™ is completely accurate at forecasting the playability and profitability for all wide-released motion pictures. When CFI™ does fail to forecast profitability correctly, it is due to one two conditions. These two basic conditions are;
1. AForecast System Error,
or
2. SimpleHuman Oversight Error. A Forecast System Erroris when the system fails to forecast correctly due to one of the four anomalies below;
1. Market Maturation Anomalies (MMA)
This occurs when changes in alternative presentations evolve and realign the audience’s response to motion pictures (such as DVD output or theatrical commercial distractions).
2. Perplexing Formulation Anomalies (PFA)
This occurs when indiscernible or unknown factors interfere with tabulations and perplex the forecasting.
3. New Demographic Anomalies (NDA)
This occurs when geographical formulations or under-evaluated or non-formulated demographic groups respond en masse and skew the equations.This usually occurs the most in children’s films with their evolving psychological development, or in rare, undiscovered demographics such as the profitable ‘southern demographic’ anomaly of ‘Sweet HomeAlabama’, ‘Friday Night Lights’, ‘Dukes of Hazzard’, and ‘Talledega Nights’.
4. Variant Formulation Anomalies (VFA)
This occurs when unexpected variations of component formulations appear in motion picture presentations and without any exacting historical evidence to rely upon, skews the audience response tabulation and disrupts the forecasting.This contains the largest percentage of forecasting anomalies, and is also the easiest to correct in future forecasting … as in the examples of the ‘cop/court/doctor “comedy” or “kidnapping” formulation’ found in ‘Taxi’ and ‘Hostage’… or such as the ‘apocalyptic survival “remake” formulation’ as found in ‘War of the Worlds’. (The above system errors occur in only about 5% of all forecasts on average.)
The Simple Human Oversight Error is either ;
1. an oversight by the human forecaster of a CFI™ component formulation application,
2. an oversight by the human forecaster of a component percentage calculation, or
3. an oversight by the human forecaster of a typographical error.
These errors are never due to any technical system or algorithm forecasting failure.It is the human oversight error that prevents the system from operating correctly. In all cases where the human oversight error occurs, there would have been a correct forecast if the error had not occurred. (The above human errors occur in only about 4% of all forecasts on average. In development and pre-production these kinds of errors do not occur.)