CFI - Cinematic Forecasting and Investment Assurance LLC ™
Investor Opportunities in Motion Picture Profits through Feature Film Box-Office Forecasts / Pre-Production Script Development / Cinematic Archetype Casting / Component Formulation Design / U.S. and Global Market Consulting & Mass Audience Forecasting
REAL TIME TESTING
RESULTS OF CFI's PROFITABILITY AUDITING
(For all North American
wide-release films - distributed in at least 650 theaters - that met CFI
Assurance's "box-profitable" formulation auditing guidelines for U.S.
box-office profitable scripting, casting, production, and budgeting for
wide-releasing.)
All budget and box-office
numbers are from data provided by either Daily Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, www.BoxOfficeMojo.com,
www.IMDB.com, the Wall Street Journal, the NY
Times, the LA Times, and www.DeadlineHollywoodDaily.com.
Note: The expense margins and
distribution costs that CFI has deducted from the incomes below are extremely
large and do not represent the smaller studio average, because we are representing costs that an independent would face (without a slate to provide it with self-distribution).
But even with these inflated costs, the slates of all films that CFI selected to be
profitable before they were produced ... continued to show a profit ... even
after all those inflated expenses and higher costs were deducted.
Films highlighted in bold
type contained NO errors in scripting, pre-production or
wide-release ... and are by the measurement standards of CFI methodology,
"error free" films. These are grouped into portfolios to compare the
smaller 'error free' slates, against larger box-profitable slates.
(Italicized films highlighted in yellow are
those which were audited by CFI to be profitable, but then failed to profit at
U.S. box offices. This error rate amounts to less than 4% of all the
scripts that CFI audits.)
The ROI for all CFI Box-Profitable Forecasts in 2005
Out of 137 feature scripts audited in 2005, 35 met
CFI box-profitability criteria:
No.
Wide-Released Motion Pictures
Budget
Domestic Gross
Foreign Gross
1
Coach Carter
30m
67m
9m
2
Are We There Yet?
32m
83m
15m
3
Indigo
0.5m
1m
0m
4
Million Dollar Baby
30m
100m
116m
5
The Wedding Date
15m
32m
15m
6
Hitch
70m
179m
189m
7
Because of Winn Dixie
14m
33m
1m
8
Diary of a Mad Black Woman
6m
51m
0m
9
The Pacifier
56m
113m
84m
10
Sin City
40m
74m
85m
11
Crash
7m
53m
23m
12
Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith
113m
380m
468m
13
The Longest Yard
82m
158m
32m
14
Madagascar
60m
193m
328m
15
Wedding Crashers
40m
209m
74m
16
Hustle and Flow
9m
22m
1m
17
Sky High
35m
64m
19m
18
March of the Penguins
3m
77m
40m
19
The 40 year old Virgin
26m
109m
68m
20
Red Eye
26m
58m
38m
21
Waiting
3m
16m
1m
22
The Gospel
4m
16m
0m
23
Good Night and Good Luck
8m
31m
13m
24
Chicken Little
60m
135m
169m
25
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
150m
289m
601m
26
Walk the Line
28m
118m
38m
27
The Family Stone
18m
60m
31m
28
Cheaper by the Dozen 2
40m
82m
43m
29
Hostage*
65m
35m
41m
30
A Lot Like Love*
30m
22m
21m
31
Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants*
25m
39m
3m
32
War of the Worlds*
132m
234m
354m
33
Must Love Dogs*
30m
44m
14m
34
The Corpse Bride*
30m
53m
64m
35
Roll Bounce*
10m
17m
0m
TOTALS
$1,301.500 mln
$3,247.000 mln
$2,998.000 mln
Domestic box-office NET revenue: (55% of
total domestic gross is average rental income derived from theaters.)
$1,785.850 mln
Foreign box-office NET revenue: (43% of total foreign gross
is average revenue derived.)
$1,289.140 mln
TOTAL Box-Office Net Revenue:
$3,074.499 mln
Estimated Domestic & Foreign Distribution fees plus
miscellaneous distribution expenses: (45% of U.S. & Foreign net
revenue is estimated. Actual fees in the U.S. can be as low as 13% but we
have used 45% to account for any cost overruns or additional studio charges
that can occur.)
($1,383.525 mln)
THEATRICAL NET REVENUE
$1,690.975 mln
Production/Budget
Expenses (the money required for
investment):
$1,301.500 mln
Estimated Marketing and Advertising expenses paid by studios: (100% of the budget expense is
deducted even though the average advertising & marketing expense
determined and published by the MPAA is actually only 60%.)
$1,301.500 mln
TOTAL Production/Budget Investment & Marketing Cost:
($2,603.000 mln)
NET PROFIT (or Loss) from all
Theatrical revenues:
- $ 912.026 mln
ROI - THEATRICAL ONLY Un-leveraged percentage of Return On
Production/Budget Expense Investment:
- 35.04 %
Gross Revenue from Ancillary markets: A reasonable
rule of thumb in 2010 would be to count 75% of the gross domestic box-office receipts (33% from DVD rentals, 30%
from DVD sales and 12% from Hotel, TV & Cable sales);
$2,435.250 mln
Estimated home video distribution & miscellaneous cost: (Deduct
another 45% from gross ancillary revenues for distribution and miscellaneous
expenses in DVD rentals or sales - deducting nothing for TV & Cable.)
($1,095.863 mln)
ANCILLARY MARKET NET PROFIT
$1,339.388 mln
Plus + THEATRICAL NET PROFITS (or
Loss)
- $ 912.026 mln
COMBINED THEATRICAL & ANCILLARY NET PROFITS
$ 427.362 mln
ROI - The percentage of return on the Production/Budget
Expenses Investmentfrom just the Theatrical & Ancillary revenue sources. (There are
no leveraged EST's, there are no merchandising incomes, and no product
tie-ins included in this amount. Those amounts would be additional income and
returns.)
+ 16.42 %
*These last 7 films on the
chart were wide-release summation oversight or training anomalies, which will
not occur in normal production operations.
2005
Producing just Error
Free scripts audited by CFI, equals an even larger ROI
Out of 137 feature films forecast in 2005, 5 met
CFI Error Free box-profitability criteria.
No.
Wide-Released Motion Pictures
Budget
Domestic Gross
Foreign Gross
1
Coach Carter
30m
67m
9m
2
Are We There Yet?
32m
83m
15m
3
The Pacifier
56m
113m
84m
4
Madagascar
60m
193m
328m
5
Red Eye
26m
58m
38m
TOTALS
$ 204.000 mln
$ 514.000 mln
$ 469.000 mln
Domestic box-office NET revenue: (55% of
total domestic gross is average rental income derived from theaters.)
$ 282.700 mln
Foreign box-office NET revenue: (43% of total foreign gross
is average revenue derived from theaters.)
$ 201.670 mln
TOTAL Box-Office Net Revenue:
$ 484.370 mln
Estimated Domestic & Foreign Distribution fees plus
miscellaneous distribution expenses: (45% of U.S. & Foreign net
revenue is estimated. Actual fees in the U.S. can be as low as 13% but we
have used 45% to account for any cost overruns or additional studio charges
that can occur.)
($ 217.967 mln)
THEATRICAL NET REVENUE
$ 266.404 mln
Production/Budget
Expenses (the money required for
investment):
$ 204.000 mln
Estimated Marketing and Advertising expenses paid by studios: (100% of the budget expense is
deducted even though the average advertising & marketing expense
determined and published by the MPAA is actually only 60%.)
$ 204.000 mln
TOTAL Production/Budget Investment & Marketing Cost:
($ 408.000 mln)
NET PROFIT (or Loss) from all
Theatrical revenues:
- $ 141.596 mln
ROI - THEATRICAL ONLY Un-leveraged percentage of Return On
Production/Budget Expense Investment:
- 34.71 %
Gross Revenue from Ancillary markets: A reasonable
rule of thumb in 2010 would be to count 75% of the gross domestic box-office receipts (33% from DVD rentals, 30%
from DVD sales and 12% from Hotel, TV & Cable sales);
$ 385.500 mln
Estimated home video distribution & miscellaneous cost: (Deduct
another 45% from gross ancillary revenues for distribution and miscellaneous
expenses in DVD rentals or sales - deducting nothing for TV & Cable.)
($ 173.475 mln)
ANCILLARY MARKET NET PROFIT
$ 212.025 mln
Plus + THEATRICAL NET PROFITS (or
Loss)
- $ 141.596 mln
COMBINED THEATRICAL & ANCILLARY NET PROFITS
$ 70.429 mln
ROI - The percentage of return on the Production/Budget
Expenses Investmentfrom just the Theatrical & Ancillary revenue sources. (There are
no leveraged EST's, there are no merchandising incomes, and no product
tie-ins included in this amount. Those amounts would be additional income and
returns.)
+ 17.26 %
The ROI for all CFI Box-Profitable Forecasts in 2006
Out of 159 feature scripts audited in 2006, 39 met
CFI box-profitability criteria:
No.
Wide-Released Motion Pictures
Budget
Domestic Gross
Foreign Gross
1
Hoodwinked
20m
51m
58m
2
Brokeback Mountain
14m
83m
95m
3
Nanny McPhee
25m
47m
75m
4
Capote
7m
29m
20m
5
Date Movie
20m
49m
36m
6
Madea's Family Reunion
6m
63m
0 m
7
TransAmerica
1m
9m
6m
8
Dave Chappelle's Block Party
3m
12m
0 m
9
Scary Movie 4
45m
91m
88m
10
Thank you for Smoking
6.5m
25m
14m
11
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown
80m
195m
456m
12
Phat Girlz
3m
7m
0 m
13
The Benchwarmers
33m
60m
5m
14
Akeelah and the Bee
8m* (10m)
19m
0 m
15
Talladega Nights
73m
148m
15m
16
United 93
15m
31m
45m
17
Over the Hedge
60m
155m
180m
18
Friends with Money
6.5m
13m
5m
19
The Break Up
52m
119m
86m
20
Nacho Libre
35m
80m
19m
21
Cars
120m
244m
218m
22
Clerks 2
5m
24m
3m
23
John Tucker Must Die
18m
41m
27m
24
Little Miss Sunshine
8m
60m
40m
25
Step Up
12m
65m
49m
26
The Illusionist
16.5m
40m
47m
27
Crank
12m
28m
16m
28
Jackass 2
11.5m
73m
12m
29
Employee of the Month
12m
28m
10m
30
Borat
18m
129m
132m
31
Harsh Times
2m
3m
3m
32
Rocky Balboa
24m
70m
85m
33
Night at the Museum
101m
251m
322m
34
The Pursuit of Happyness
55m
164m
141m
35
She's the Man*
20m
34m
23m
36
Hoot*
15m
8m
0 m
37
Invincible*
33m
58m
0.5m
38
The Guardian*
50m
55m
40m
39
Santa Clause 3*
65m
85m
26m
TOTALS
$1,124.000 mln
$2,746.000 mln
$2,397.500 mln
Domestic box-office NET revenue: (55% of
total domestic gross is average rental income derived from theaters.)
$1,510.300 mln
Foreign box-office NET revenue: (43% of total foreign gross
is average revenue derived from theaters.)
$1,030.925 mln
TOTAL Box-Office Net Revenue:
$2,541.225 mln
Estimated Domestic & Foreign Distribution fees plus
miscellaneous distribution expenses: (45% of U.S. & Foreign net
revenue is estimated. Actual fees in the U.S. can be as low as 13% but we
have used 45% to account for any cost overruns or additional studio charges
that can occur.)
($1,143.551 mln)
THEATRICAL NET REVENUE
$1,397.674 mln
Production/Budget
Expenses (the money required for
investment):
$1,124.000 mln
Estimated Marketing and Advertising expenses paid by studios: (100% of the budget expense is
deducted even though the average advertising & marketing expense
determined and published by the MPAA is actually only 60%.)
$1,124.000 mln
TOTAL Production/Budget Investment & Marketing Cost:
($2,248.000 mln)
NET PROFIT (or Loss) from all
Theatrical revenues:
- $850.326 mln
ROI - THEATRICAL ONLY Un-leveraged percentage of Return On
Production/Budget Expense Investment:
- 37.83 %
Gross Revenue from Ancillary markets: A reasonable
rule of thumb in 2010 would be to count 75% of the gross domestic box-office receipts (33% from DVD rentals, 30%
from DVD sales and 12% from Hotel, TV & Cable sales);
$2,059.500 mln
Estimated home video distribution & miscellaneous cost: (Deduct
another 45% from gross ancillary revenues for distribution and miscellaneous
expenses in DVD rentals or sales - deducting nothing for TV & Cable.)
($ 926.775 mln)
ANCILLARY MARKET NET PROFIT
$1,132.725 mln
Plus + THEATRICAL NET PROFITS (or
Loss)
- $850.326 mln
COMBINED THEATRICAL & ANCILLARY NET PROFITS
$ 282.399 mln
ROI - The percentage of return on the Production/Budget
Expenses Investmentfrom just the Theatrical & Ancillary revenue sources. (There are
no leveraged EST's, there are no merchandising incomes, and no product
tie-ins included in this amount. Those amounts would be additional income and
returns.)
+ 12.56 %
*These last 5 films on the
chart were wide-release summation oversight or training anomalies, which will
not occur in normal production operations.
2006
Producing just Error
Free scripts audited by CFI, equals an even larger ROI
Out of 159 feature scripts forecast in 2006, 4 met
CFI Error Free box-profitability criteria.
No.
Wide-Released Motion Pictures
Budget
Domestic Gross
Foreign Gross
1
United 93
15m
31 m
45 m
2
Hoot
15m
8 m
0 m
3
Over the Hedge
60m
155 m
180 m
4
Night at the Museum
101m
251 m
322 m
TOTALS
$ 191.000 mln
$ 445.000 mln
$ 547.000 mln
Domestic box-office NET revenue: (55% of
total domestic gross is average rental income derived from theaters.)
$ 244.750 mln
Foreign box-office NET revenue: (43% of total foreign gross
is average revenue derived from theaters.)
$ 235.210 mln
TOTAL Box-Office Net Revenue:
$ 479.960 mln
Estimated Domestic & Foreign Distribution fees plus
miscellaneous distribution expenses: (45% of U.S. & Foreign net
revenue is estimated. Actual fees in the U.S. can be as low as 13% but we
have used 45% to account for any cost overruns or additional studio charges
that can occur.)
($ 215.982 mln)
THEATRICAL NET REVENUE
$ 263.978 mln
Production/Budget
Expenses (the money required for
investment):
$ 191.000 mln
Estimated Marketing and Advertising expenses paid by studios: (100% of the budget expense is
deducted even though the average advertising & marketing expense
determined and published by the MPAA is actually only 60%.)
$ 191.000 mln
TOTAL Production/Budget Investment & Marketing Cost:
($ 382.600 mln)
NET PROFIT (or Loss) from all
Theatrical revenues:
- $ 118.622 mln
ROI - THEATRICAL ONLY Un-leveraged percentage of Return On
Production/Budget Expense Investment:
- 31.00 %
Gross Revenue from Ancillary markets: A reasonable
rule of thumb in 2010 would be to count 75% of the gross domestic box-office receipts (33% from DVD rentals, 30%
from DVD sales and 12% from Hotel, TV & Cable sales);
$ 333.750 mln
Estimated home video distribution & miscellaneous cost: (Deduct
another 45% from gross ancillary revenues for distribution and miscellaneous
expenses in DVD rentals or sales - deducting nothing for TV & Cable.)
($ 150.188 mln)
ANCILLARY MARKET NET PROFIT
$ 183.563 mln
Plus + THEATRICAL NET PROFITS (or
Loss)
- $118.622 mln
COMBINED THEATRICAL & ANCILLARY NET PROFITS
$ 64.941 mln
ROI - The percentage of return on the Production/Budget
Expenses Investmentfrom just the Theatrical & Ancillary revenue sources. (There are
no leveraged EST's, there are no merchandising incomes, and no product
tie-ins included in this amount. Those amounts would be additional income and
returns.)
+ 16.97 %
Cinematic Forecasts and Investor Assurance Return On Investment (ROI) The ROI for each year of the last 10 years were as follows;
If you had invested in the scripts CFI selected as profitable BEFORE they were released (including the average ancillary revenue estimates with the domestic & foreign box-office actuals) ... while using the extra-large expense margins we subtracted from the income, the ROIs per year would still be as follows; 2000: +23.14% 2001: +26.21% 2002: +17.90% 2003: +31.11% 2004: +31.17% 2005: +58.41% 2006: +12.56% 2007: +15.56% 2008; +21.41% 2009; +74.27%
The 10 year average return on investment for CFI audited scripts is + 31.17% If you had invested in the scripts CFI audited before distribution that had NOcomponent formulation errors, (including the average ancillary revenue estimates with the domestic & foreign box-office actuals) while subtracting the extra-large expense margins, the ROIs per year would have been as follows;
The ten year return on investment for ERROR FREE scripts audited by CFI is + 45.65% (Lower returns in 2004 to 2006 were due to consumer's investments in DVDs, rather than attending theaters for secondary ticket sales.)